First, let me say it again, since people seem not to read The Ticker often: The Market Ticker is not a short-term trading log. If you're looking for that, you can find it with a gold star on Tickerforum. End of (short) rant.
Those who claim that the macro environment is improving - fit these pieces in your models and smoke 'em. We'll start with the Credit Survey:
Credit remained especially tight for commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans and credit cards. Some banks were beginning to ease standards for residential mortgages.
Most banks said they would tighten standards for credit cards in reaction to recent legislation that outlawed some practices Congress said were abusive to customers.
That's not so good. But it pales compared to this:
Banks that tightened credit requirements for business loans did so for the same three reasons cited in earlier surveys: reduced tolerance for risk, an uncertain economic outlook, and problems specific to industries.
Heh wait a second! I thought the economic outlook was improving? Not according to the banks it isn't!
The details? A scant two percent of banks eased standards for prime residential mortgages, and 4% were more willing to make consumer loans. For all others lending standards remained the same or tightened.
Next, if you think the mega-sized profits and bonuses of the "too big to fail" are going to stay, well, perhaps not. Of course the big boyz will fight it, but perhaps - just perhaps - someone's been reading Tickers on The Hill....
"What you will have is another public utility sector, with banks growing roughly 4% a year, funded by deposits," Richard Bove, a financial-services analyst at Rochdale Securities, said in an interview.
That could change things.....
Finally, there's this:
To some lawmakers it's nothing more than a photo op to help Paterson get re-elected. But the governor is dead serious. He said if the Legislature doesn't cut the budget now the state could run out of money by next month.
"We're going to run out of cash in four and a half weeks. We are going to run out of money. Unless we do something about it, (it will) threaten generations," Paterson said.
That's New York! Uh, wait a second. I thought Wall Street was back to their tax-paying, bonus-giving ways? What's this?
The governor says $3.2 billion in cuts must be enacted how -- or else. The cuts range from $500 million in agency spending to over $1 billion in already committed in aid to school districts and hospitals.
Hoh hoh hoh - Merry Christmas, especially given....
But Senate Democrats, with their tenuous 32-30 hold on the upper house, are terrified to make school and hospital cuts because, they said, the cuts could mean increases in local property taxes.
That's right, your property value goes down but your taxes go up! Isn't that special?
Of course government never wants to deal with things like gold-plated (and diamond-studded!) pension plans, or double-dipping "retirees" that come back as "consultants" or even take a second job (to get a second pension!) and other similar games. Why no!
The average American is supposed to tighten HIS or HER belt, but government? Hoh hoh hoh - no, we'll pick your pocket instead!
(Let's not forget that NY State increased spending last year - into the maw of this mess - by some $12 billion. That was smart, no?)
I have a solution to this - Tax these bonuses at a 90% marginal rate:
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s investment bank, survivors of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, are set to pay record bonuses this year.
The firms -- the three biggest banks to exit the Troubled Asset Relief Program -- will hand out $29.7 billion in bonuses, according to analysts’ estimates.
That ought to cover it. After all, none of these firms would exist were it not for the extraordinary help they received. Since they're taking the "I don't give a damn" position, NY State should do the same, and enact a 90% marginal rate on their bonuses - including stock awards - to be paid in cash, up front.
Then there's Illinois:
The Minority Report is a data-grounded call for gutsy leadership to modernize the pension system that Illinoisans can't sustain: "Just to keep the unfunded obligation from growing, the state should be funding pensions to the extent of about $8.3 billion (per year) out of operating revenues."
That approaches one-third of the current state budget. Can't be done.
But heh, I'm just a pessimist, right?
First California, now New York, all as a consequence of allowing "the mighty" (whether they be public unions or banksters) to rob the government and public wholesale.
I guess I shouldn't be surprised; after all, Washington DC set a perfect example by ripping off the taxpayer - nearly literally at gunpoint - for $700 billion last year.
What's a few more billion between "friends"?
Finally, a bit of (possible) tin - a claim that "peak oil" is much closer than claimed in the Guardian (UK):
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.
The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.
If that meme gains traction into an imploding dollar I hope you like paying $6+/gallon for your gasoline. Let's not talk about heating oil or diesel fuel (the same thing really), especially going into the winter months....
What does Warren know?
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