Boom Boom Tuesday!

Blame it on Ericsson if you want....

"Ericsson AB said third-quarter profit unexpectedly fell 36 percent as sales of wireless networks trailed the company's forecasts."

There's that fun word - "unexpectedly."

I wonder if a better way to look at it might be found here:



Or, if you prefer:



And speaking of "Hank", when are we going to see some REAL regulation? Some REAL prosecution? Some REAL enforcement of the law? Sarbanes-Oxley eh? Horseshit. Hiding liabilities has become part and parcel of Wall Street since Enron's collapse - we not only learned nothing but the SEC and other regulators and prosecutors are still lying to the American people in that they STILL look the other way when crap like these SIVs are kept off-balance-sheet!

And oh by the way, isn't it RACKETEERING if you CONSPIRE with multiple people to lie about a firm's financial condition? Let me see - I ain't a lawyer but the last time I checked that required a predicate offense and two or more people who agree to commit it....

Hmmmm.....

AGAIN: WHERE ARE THE COPS?

You have to love fuckheads like this. Here's Hank's latest bullshit:

"He also called for an overhaul of laws and regulations governing mortgage lending to halt abusive practices that contributed to the current crisis."

Really?

"Let me be clear" he says eh? I think what he really said is actually more like this:

"Let me be clear. I'm a lying asshole and have been lying to you about the risks here for over a year. I knew what was going on but I figured that the SIVs and conduits would allow the banks to hide this shit until they could shovel it off on some poor unsuspecting bastard in China, who we secretly desire to fuck up the ass. But now they won't buy that shit any more and the money market guys got wise to us too, so now we're really fucked and my nose is three feet long! Fuck me - can someone give me a reach-around please?"

Heh Hank. Remember your former company, Goldman Sucks? Yeah, those fuckers, along with Bear, Merrill, Morgan, you know, "The Pigmen Extreme"? Well they were the cause of this, you know. They are the ones who packaged up these mortgages into exotic instruments and then bought and paid for ratings that we know have now proven to be FALSE! And then, as if that's not bad enough, you want to help them hide that shit off their balance sheets instead of doing the right thing and counting it against their reserves! Let me guess - you influenced The Fed in giving out those 23A letters, didn't you?

You need to be indicted HANK and so do your BUDDIES.

But that's just my opinion.

By the way, we the people can stop the SIV shit. No, not with the petition (that can stop it in the future); I'm talking about with direct action.

If you have a Money Market account anywhere - a bank, a brokerage, anywhere - call 'em right now and tell them - if they buy any of that shit they lose your funds in your MM account, and you are telling your friends to be equally diligent.

No demand, no supply. End of problem.

Oh, "the market" doesn't care about this stuff eh?

We shall see about that.

Oh, you Tech Market "buy the dippers" today? You know, the fools who bought Apple and Google late this morning? Yeah, you idiots. Did you pay attention to Ericsson's earnings report? You think that won't come over here eh? Oook. The truth will be found in the tape; hope you're long KY because IMHO you're gonna need it, and relatively soon.

While the market "doesn't care" oil is skyrocketing, headed for a NINE handle. Traders ignored the "8", but now it looks like that ain't no fluke, and guess what - Gold ain't behind it by much in terms of the sort of move its having.

Woke up this morning to S&P futes down 7, Nasdaq 100s down 14.50. That's the first time in quite a while they've been bright red like that. Or is that blood-red?

DR Horton says sales suck. Oh, you think? Duh. Of course who do they blame? Banks.

"D.R. Horton Inc., the second largest U.S. homebuilder, said orders fell 39 percent in the fiscal fourth quarter as banks restricted lending."

Horsecrap, to be blunt. The real problem is simple - too much supply for the amount of demand. Guess who's responsible for the supply? Uh, people like Horton! And how did we artificially prop demand? With all these fraudulent mortgages and now, these "SIeVes" that are being used to hide the financial results!

This shit is FAR BIGGER than Watergate. Do we need a full-on financial COLLAPSE before anyone in the LAW ENFORCEMENT side of things will wake the fuck up and start doing their job? PAGING BARNEY FIFE! PAGING BARNEY FIFE! He looks like a damn competent cop compared to the people allegedly doing this job nowdays!

Wells (WFC) missed with not all that much in the way of additional loss reserves. Betcha that still ain't enough! They finally fessed that correspondent lending (that'd be folks they "trust" to bring them good loans) is in fact a house of fraud and bullshit, responsible for a huge part of their losses, and shut the channel down this quarter. No, really? Hint: The fraud has always been there but up until now it has been the consumer who has taken it up the ass as they were forced to sell their house or refinance - which they thought of as "at a gain" but in fact it was simple equity-stripping by the banks. Now, with house prices flat-to-down-significantly, instead of the consumer taking it up the ass the bank is getting reamed instead! Of course ONLY NOW does Wells (or anyone else) give a shit.

There ought to be something you can get indicted for in there too.

Oh, and if you think "Internet 2.0" is the answer? Not so, says ValueClick (VCLK):

"ValueClick, Inc. (Nasdaq:VCLK - News) today announced that, based on preliminary financial results, revenue for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007 will be approximately $156 to $157 million compared to the Company's prior guidance range of $155 to $165 million. Revenue was negatively impacted primarily by continued weakness in lead generation, which is included in the Media business segment, partially offset by better than expected results in the Comparison Shopping segment."

Hmmm. Isn't this intentionally-obfuscated speak for "advertising dollars are drying up, especially in the real estate and lending sector, and we're getting our ass handed to us"?

I wonder how this will impact one of those pretty little Horsies...... hmmmm....

And in the "you have to be shitting me" department, CNBullShit claims that "Christmas Sales will rise by 17.6%". Yeah, right. Here's my prediction - sales will rise at a rate of less than inflation, and might be negative Y/O/Y.

"Grinchmas is coming fools!"

Key Corp (KEY) got crushed with a bad earnings miss. Missing this one is my fault - they're a big boat lender. Argh. Oh well. I ain't gonna chase it, but if there's a pop on them in the next few days I'll be looking to short these fools into it. That story ain't over, and their concentration in "recreational" loans is not something that is going to be good going forward.

Treasury flows came out this morning at 9:00 AM and showed net capital outflow of $163 billion .vs. $94 billion inflow in July. THAT'S capital flight kids, and is precisely what I've been predicting would happen with BenDover's bullshit. Guess who's selling? Oh, I think the nation's name starts with a "C". The futures were recovering - up until that was released. That corn-cob-looking spike is specially reserved for BenDover's butthole; so much for the futes recovering this morning going into the open!

In Geopolitical the Turks are threatening to head into Iraq and China is pizzed off at us hosting The Dalai Lama, claiming we're interfering with their "internal affairs." To China - Fuck You. Capiche? Your right to imprison people ends at your border, and whatever gripe you have with The Dalai Lama (and it appears to be a legitimate one) has reach only within your nation. Figure it out kids - communism comes with quite a big pair of balls, it would appear.

The Turkish situation is more serious. Not because I think there's anything of substance to it, but because we have a real problem over there with further destabilization of the Middle East. Unfortunately there's not a lot we can do about it, and the game-playing with the Turko/Armenian stuff around WWI is a side show. Reality is that the Kurds and Turks have hated each other for a long time (that entire fucking part of the world has a history of 5,000 year old wars that are barely kept below boiling for hundreds of years at a time) so this is really nothing new - but it continues to point to the pure FOLLY of the United States refusing to develop our DOMESTIC energy resources.

But heh, until the DumbOCrats get off their asses and let us drill for the oil and gas we have, we're hostage to those assholes. Life's a bitch and a nine or even a "10" handle on Oil is coming - hope you like the impact that will have on your heating bill this winter and everything you buy that has oil in it (that'd be anything made out of plastic, for starters!)

Psst - 4th Quarter earnings estimates are deteriorating. That is all that is holding up the markets right now. If this deterioration in 4Q estimates continues much below 10% we are likely to see a 10% selloff over the next month or so!

Oh, homebuilder Sentiment fell to 18 - lowest number ever. Congratulations - now we're finally starting to see some truth in that industry too.

Is bad news still good news? Tell 'ya what - no earnings growth will be the end of this Bull.

There's simply no way to spin that one.

IBM's earnings came in at $1.68, revenues up 6.6% y/o/y. That's not particularly impressive, but is a penny over estimates (big surprise.) Big contribution from global services growth. Gross margins under a bit of pressure, 41.3% .vs. 42%; that's not in the right direction but its a small move. Looks like the "overseas good, US sucked rocks" story is alive and well. Initial response wasn't good, trading down $1.50 - we'll see how that unfolds as people dig through the release a bit more.

Intel (INTC) revs came in at 10.09B, +15% y/o/y, sees 4Q basically flat (10.5-11.1), gross margin up to 52% from 47%. Earnings 31 cents, a penny over (gee, again?) The initial response was modestly positive (up 2% aftermarket, but started to bleed back a bit.) Need more color on this one obviously, but the potential "hmmmm" is the forecast for basically flat sales next quarter. That doesn't put a lot of confidence into continued sales growth eh?

Yahoo (YHOO) hit 11c EPS, big beat over expected 8 cents, net down y/o/y, but revenue up 12% y/o/y (although down q/o/q), sees revenues up for 4Q to some degree. Non-GAAP better but heh, what's the real number? 1999 games again? Unknown. But - not the disaster that some people were fearing, and the stock got some help after-hours.

So as I put this to bed we've got 2 of 3 big reports producing material pops and one (IBM) disappointment, as measured by the market's reaction.

Oh, don't tell the ABX. I know, I know, people will buy more computers and advertising even as their home front craters.

If you say so - here's what the ABX did today:

That's "AA" credit there in the red, supposedly anyway. Five points in a day and now pushing the August lows.


Here's the BBBs on their relentless dive towards zero.

Irrational exuberance in the techs? We shall see. Looks like it for a day, although IBM is dissenting strongly, trending downward even as I write this.

We shall see how it plays out overnight and into the morning!

Here's your technical!