Friday, October 19. 2007Falling (Knife) Friday!Here is your US Economy and the stock market... watch carefully..... CAT disappoints, UTX disappoints, both with calamitously bad results in the United States. CAT called the US trucking business "the worst it has been in 50 years" (!) I know, I know, its a "new economy" - we don't have to move "stuff" in order to have a growing GDP, right? If you want to believe that you should ride the short bus! SanDisk beats but their comments about margin pressure hits their stock for more than 10% (well duh!) So what's to like here in this market? Absolutely nothing, and that's the problem when you get to the end of the day. So far, analysts are not dropping their 4Q profit estimates on the S&P as a whole even though the individual companies are! You don't think there might be just a "tiny" conflict of interest do you? Anyone remember Abby Cohen's "famous" (or is that "infamous") calls on the Nasdaq in 1999 and 2000? How'd that work out for you? So is the short bus disgorging riders? Well, not too many as of yet. But it will, and when it does - you better be either out or on the "right side" of the trade, or you're going to be bleeding from your ass. What you saw today could easily be just the start! Corporate earnings are slowing down guys. That's a fact, and its going to continue for some time. Reality here is that we're looking at a US Consumer slowdown and in my view a recession in the United States is coming, if its not already here! Yet the "pump monkeys" remain out there trying desperately to get someone - anyone - to hold their bag for them. Don't be one of them or you're going to find that its a big hairy gorilla's ballsack and what's in there is, well, more than a bit gross. Next week we get Apple and Amazon. The bad news is that there are no real decent plays on verticals available on either. Boo hiss. Heh, it is what it is right? Countrywide (CFC) is REALLY swirling the bowl today - no real news out there but they are getting positively HAMMERED. You gotta love it. Greenspan speaks (again) along with Warren and both think the M-LEC SIeVe rescue is a bunch of bullshit. Good! Now if we can get 100,000 signatures on that petition and get this off-balance-sheet crap BANNED ENTIRELY we'll be making progress! The first 350-odd faxes are now delivered. If you signed and want to follow up with a phone call, have at it - your reps and senators have the document at this point. The queue is clear. Make me broke paying the fax bills kids. PLEASE! Again - that petition is at http://financialpetition.org/. Go there, sign it, distribute it to your friends, neighbors and blogs. You sign, I spend. How often do you get a true "free lunch"? Watch out on metals. IF we get a hard break on the indices - which will come if 4Q earnings expectations start to ratchet downward - you're going to see tremendous margin call pressure show up almost immediately, which will whack on metals like nobody's business. The only way this doesn't happen is if the selling stops in the broader indices! That's not a bet I would take at this juncture. Hindy posted again today. That makes 4-in-a-row. I don't know if that's some sort of record, but it sure as hell isn't the sort you want if it is! This afternoon things REALLY took off to the downside - the run for the exits got legs and started to extend. BE CAREFUL TRADING THIS as there's a severe amount of pressure in the market right now and this can blow up in your face to an extreme degree - but with that said, this definitely doesn't look to be over with one day's worth of movement. Look at the ABX and CMBX today - it was horrible today.... ![]() Would you like some "AA" paper for 70 cents on the dollar, and some "AAA" approaching 90? Ouch. Or look at these "A"s and "BBB"s.... ![]() ![]() The CMBX is horrible too... only the AAAs have been spared (thus far) but they're going apeshit too - just not as bad.... ![]() Now here's the cute part - the only thing protecting the higher (e.g. "AAA") tranches is the overcollateralization of the lower ones! There is NOTHING inherently good about the crap in these securities at ANY level. So as these go "worthless" (or essentially so) the "security" of those "better" tranches disappears! What's worse is that there are "default events" on UNRATED tranches (which you can't see) that amount to a "credit event" - and THAT can hit the upper tranches as well. And there is nothing that Bernanke - or anyone else - can do to fix this. Even if he cut rates to zero it doesn't make these mortgages - written at the earlier prices - be easier to pay! Refinances can't be done either if you're under the penalty lock period and/or if your LTV is over 100%, and with housing price declines guess what - LTVs are going over 100%! What you're seeing is the implosion of these CDOs, and over the next few months a huge number of them are likely to detonate. A goodly number of them are in SIVs and conduits, which puts the "fear of God" into money market managers who have bought the paper issued by those conduits. THAT they will try to bail out - but it won't matter, because the underlying instruments are still worthless, and a zero is a zero is a zero! Nobody's going to eat those shit sandwiches any more - they've all had a bite and they all taste like shit! Fun times ahead kids..... The technical is big tonight - give it time to upload (and load when you view it) before bitching 'k? 28 minutes worth and, if I do dare say, worth watching! Comments
Thursday, October 18. 2007Thrusting (Up Yours Bernanke!) Thursday
Wow.
BAC Misses, Pfizer misses, CFC has the SEC after them, the dollar goes to shit overnight, jobless claims 337,000, up 28,000 - that's a NASTY on the jobless number - the entire yield curve goes to shit on flight to quality (down across the board - big), both the Yen and Euro spike. Oh, and Oil within spitting distance of NINETY DOLLARS! Of course the Fed Futures expect more rate cuts - 75% chance according to the futures. So heh, bad news is back to being bad news! Sell sell sell? All eyes go to The Googster yes? The Philly fed index came in down significantly with material inflation pressures shown as well. LEIs, on the other hand, came in a bit stronger than expected. But the prices-paid component in the Philly index is not a good thing. At all. The market's trading today was quite muted - a big surprise to me - but in the afternoon the "wishes and dreams" buyers came out in force - despite the BoA miss and the Philly Fed Index, neither of which supported a strong economic picture, and rising unemployment claims. What does this data support? Rate cuts - into a recession! Remember kids, the thesis here is that 3Q profits are a wipe but 4Q will run over 10%. And - this was what we were promised for 3Q last quarter, when estimates were relentlessly ratcheted down and came in well under that magic 10% mark. How many times will equity buyers be lied to before they wake up? I still see folks on the short bus! Oh, we got another Hindenburg. Three in a row - that's impressive - if you're fixing to (or are) short. Oh, and let's not forget - every time we've seen that sort of spike in the bills lately? Bad news has shown up a couple of days later - usually catastrophically bad, and 200+ points "magically" disappear off the DOW. How come? Because there are always leaks, you know. People don't play straight, fair, or even legal. So they bail before you, Sir Retail, and guess who gets to hold the bag? Yep. What else? Well, not much going on really. Other than another (this will make two!) - and this one a bigger - SIeVe going down in flames! (Heh, is that where the Bill traffic came from?) "Rhinebridge Plc, a structured investment vehicle run by IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, said it may not be able to pay back debt related to $23 billion in commercial paper programs."Ah, the sweet smell of truth. And in honor of that..... How long before the equity markets "get it"? Well, I wouldn't look at the ABX if I were you... ![]() ![]() ![]() Google - $3.38/share according to the flash that I got, but CNBullShit printed $3.91. Fluff/noise in the number? Hmmm..... looks that way. The instant reaction from the market was down significantly - over $10 - from the close - but then it came back to down about $5. Sandisk got a pop. COF missed both ways but didn't get murdered - surprising. Update: Sandisk's conference call failed to impress and they were taken to the woodshed. COF bled off their early gains. AMD and the Googster managed to keep a bit - but not a big run. We shall see what tomorrow brings.... Here's your technical! Comments
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Wednesday, October 17. 2007Wild (Warning) WednesdayIn honor of a new chain starting up...... and by the way, I believe this will shortly confirm as a chain reaction..... Second, a number of indicators that I watch but don't talk about flashed grave danger signs today at the close. These are my own "trade secret" things - stuff I don't share with anyone - but its sufficient to say that there's real trouble brewing in the internals of the market right now. Earnings this evening did not produce good things. WaMu and E*Trade whiffed, along with an unexpected nasty - Allstate. Remember - no storms this year. Where's the whiff? Well, what do you think insurance companies do when they're holding premiums? Yep. EBAY reported after the close and got a big pop but by the the conference call was finished it was all gone. They closed out the afterhours session where they went out at 4:00 ET - not good. The futures have bled off their after-hours cheerleading along with it. Oh, and there was a major flight to treasuries today, along with a selling of precious metals - this spells distribution. Add all this up and a great big fat warning sign is staring you in the face. If you're long the market, beware. If you're short, well, you may be about to have a lot of fun at The Bull's expense. I got a special cartoon for the occasion if I prove to be right..... "MGIC Investment Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage insurer, fell to the lowest since 1996 after predicting a loss for next year and saying home prices may drop 10 percent in the next 18 months. A gauge of financial shares retreated for a sixth day, the longest losing streak since 2005."Oops. Oh, on that "CPI" thing, the 12 month print as of last month determines the Social Security adjustment for COLA - so for the next year, you see 2.3%. Yeah, right. I guess if you eat computers this is somewhat accurate, but of course we know that you buy one of those as a durable but your food and energy prices - not to mention health care - are rising at a double-digit rate. Not that anyone cares, it would appear. The squeeze on the retiree is relentless - and ugly. Next up, do you use PayPal and eBAY? Well, guess what! Your funds that are "parked" are exposed to that toxic crap risk. Nice eh? And did they tell you this? Well, if you dig for it. This is the sort of stupid shit that I hope people wake up to - and fast - before they lose a shitload of money. I never "park" anything in there - it comes out the day it hits - but a lot of eBAY sellers use PayPal basically like a bank. Beware with that kids - its not a bank, is not regulated like a bank, and you have no safety for your funds in there AT ALL. Ask anyone who's ever had a problem with those clowns about it. There are all sorts of "sucks" websites around for PayPal and with some reason. Yes, I know, the "donate" button on my forum uses it. Believe me - the money doesn't sit in there for longer than it takes me to smell it before I ACH it out! Note that there IS a "bank-like" parking place, but of course the money-market fund returns "more." Kids, there is no such thing as chasing returns beyond Treasuries that does not come with some measure of risk! The Beige Book came out in a way that can best be described as "tepid at best" - or as Steve Liesman said - "blue". As in "sucking for oxygen?" Yeah. Oh, the market bounced on that. Why? Belief in more rate cuts, believe it or not. Doesn't help you if the economy dies, but heh, the short bus is still being ridden here.... Oh, if you think this SIeVe stuff is just theoretical risk? Uh, not quite: "The receivers declared an 'insolvency event,' Deloitte said. That means the SIV is unable to pay its debts when they are due, according to its prospectus."Just call it what it is - the SIeVe just let all the water out - they're bankrupt. Nice. Oh, don't look at the ABX..... Nice roller coaster you folks got there...... ![]() ![]() ![]() Heh, Mister, can you spare a quarter? Twenty-five?! Here's your Technical! PS: If you haven't signed the petition over at http://financialpetition.org/, please do so! This is important folks - and the fax transmissions are on me. That's right, you sign, I spend, your Congressfolk get your yelling at my expense! Comments
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Tuesday, October 16. 2007Boom Boom Tuesday!
Blame it on Ericsson if you want....
"Ericsson AB said third-quarter profit unexpectedly fell 36 percent as sales of wireless networks trailed the company's forecasts."There's that fun word - "unexpectedly." I wonder if a better way to look at it might be found here: ![]() Or, if you prefer: ![]() And speaking of "Hank", when are we going to see some REAL regulation? Some REAL prosecution? Some REAL enforcement of the law? Sarbanes-Oxley eh? Horseshit. Hiding liabilities has become part and parcel of Wall Street since Enron's collapse - we not only learned nothing but the SEC and other regulators and prosecutors are still lying to the American people in that they STILL look the other way when crap like these SIVs are kept off-balance-sheet! And oh by the way, isn't it RACKETEERING if you CONSPIRE with multiple people to lie about a firm's financial condition? Let me see - I ain't a lawyer but the last time I checked that required a predicate offense and two or more people who agree to commit it.... Hmmmm..... AGAIN: WHERE ARE THE COPS? You have to love fuckheads like this. Here's Hank's latest bullshit: "He also called for an overhaul of laws and regulations governing mortgage lending to halt abusive practices that contributed to the current crisis." Really? "Let me be clear" he says eh? I think what he really said is actually more like this: "Let me be clear. I'm a lying asshole and have been lying to you about the risks here for over a year. I knew what was going on but I figured that the SIVs and conduits would allow the banks to hide this shit until they could shovel it off on some poor unsuspecting bastard in China, who we secretly desire to fuck up the ass. But now they won't buy that shit any more and the money market guys got wise to us too, so now we're really fucked and my nose is three feet long! Fuck me - can someone give me a reach-around please?" Heh Hank. Remember your former company, Goldman Sucks? Yeah, those fuckers, along with Bear, Merrill, Morgan, you know, "The Pigmen Extreme"? Well they were the cause of this, you know. They are the ones who packaged up these mortgages into exotic instruments and then bought and paid for ratings that we know have now proven to be FALSE! And then, as if that's not bad enough, you want to help them hide that shit off their balance sheets instead of doing the right thing and counting it against their reserves! Let me guess - you influenced The Fed in giving out those 23A letters, didn't you? You need to be indicted HANK and so do your BUDDIES. But that's just my opinion. By the way, we the people can stop the SIV shit. No, not with the petition (that can stop it in the future); I'm talking about with direct action. If you have a Money Market account anywhere - a bank, a brokerage, anywhere - call 'em right now and tell them - if they buy any of that shit they lose your funds in your MM account, and you are telling your friends to be equally diligent. No demand, no supply. End of problem. Oh, you Tech Market "buy the dippers" today? You know, the fools who bought Apple and Google late this morning? Yeah, you idiots. Did you pay attention to Ericsson's earnings report? You think that won't come over here eh? Oook. The truth will be found in the tape; hope you're long KY because IMHO you're gonna need it, and relatively soon. While the market "doesn't care" oil is skyrocketing, headed for a NINE handle. Traders ignored the "8", but now it looks like that ain't no fluke, and guess what - Gold ain't behind it by much in terms of the sort of move its having. Woke up this morning to S&P futes down 7, Nasdaq 100s down 14.50. That's the first time in quite a while they've been bright red like that. Or is that blood-red? DR Horton says sales suck. Oh, you think? Duh. Of course who do they blame? Banks.
Horsecrap, to be blunt. The real problem is simple - too much supply for the amount of demand. Guess who's responsible for the supply? Uh, people like Horton! And how did we artificially prop demand? With all these fraudulent mortgages and now, these "SIeVes" that are being used to hide the financial results! This shit is FAR BIGGER than Watergate. Do we need a full-on financial COLLAPSE before anyone in the LAW ENFORCEMENT side of things will wake the fuck up and start doing their job? PAGING BARNEY FIFE! PAGING BARNEY FIFE! He looks like a damn competent cop compared to the people allegedly doing this job nowdays! Wells (WFC) missed with not all that much in the way of additional loss reserves. Betcha that still ain't enough! They finally fessed that correspondent lending (that'd be folks they "trust" to bring them good loans) is in fact a house of fraud and bullshit, responsible for a huge part of their losses, and shut the channel down this quarter. No, really? Hint: The fraud has always been there but up until now it has been the consumer who has taken it up the ass as they were forced to sell their house or refinance - which they thought of as "at a gain" but in fact it was simple equity-stripping by the banks. Now, with house prices flat-to-down-significantly, instead of the consumer taking it up the ass the bank is getting reamed instead! Of course ONLY NOW does Wells (or anyone else) give a shit. There ought to be something you can get indicted for in there too. Oh, and if you think "Internet 2.0" is the answer? Not so, says ValueClick (VCLK): "ValueClick, Inc. (Nasdaq:VCLK - News) today announced that, based on preliminary financial results, revenue for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007 will be approximately $156 to $157 million compared to the Company's prior guidance range of $155 to $165 million. Revenue was negatively impacted primarily by continued weakness in lead generation, which is included in the Media business segment, partially offset by better than expected results in the Comparison Shopping segment."Hmmm. Isn't this intentionally-obfuscated speak for "advertising dollars are drying up, especially in the real estate and lending sector, and we're getting our ass handed to us"? I wonder how this will impact one of those pretty little Horsies...... hmmmm.... And in the "you have to be shitting me" department, CNBullShit claims that "Christmas Sales will rise by 17.6%". Yeah, right. Here's my prediction - sales will rise at a rate of less than inflation, and might be negative Y/O/Y. "Grinchmas is coming fools!" Key Corp (KEY) got crushed with a bad earnings miss. Missing this one is my fault - they're a big boat lender. Argh. Oh well. I ain't gonna chase it, but if there's a pop on them in the next few days I'll be looking to short these fools into it. That story ain't over, and their concentration in "recreational" loans is not something that is going to be good going forward. Treasury flows came out this morning at 9:00 AM and showed net capital outflow of $163 billion .vs. $94 billion inflow in July. THAT'S capital flight kids, and is precisely what I've been predicting would happen with BenDover's bullshit. Guess who's selling? Oh, I think the nation's name starts with a "C". The futures were recovering - up until that was released. That corn-cob-looking spike is specially reserved for BenDover's butthole; so much for the futes recovering this morning going into the open! In Geopolitical the Turks are threatening to head into Iraq and China is pizzed off at us hosting The Dalai Lama, claiming we're interfering with their "internal affairs." To China - Fuck You. Capiche? Your right to imprison people ends at your border, and whatever gripe you have with The Dalai Lama (and it appears to be a legitimate one) has reach only within your nation. Figure it out kids - communism comes with quite a big pair of balls, it would appear. The Turkish situation is more serious. Not because I think there's anything of substance to it, but because we have a real problem over there with further destabilization of the Middle East. Unfortunately there's not a lot we can do about it, and the game-playing with the Turko/Armenian stuff around WWI is a side show. Reality is that the Kurds and Turks have hated each other for a long time (that entire fucking part of the world has a history of 5,000 year old wars that are barely kept below boiling for hundreds of years at a time) so this is really nothing new - but it continues to point to the pure FOLLY of the United States refusing to develop our DOMESTIC energy resources. But heh, until the DumbOCrats get off their asses and let us drill for the oil and gas we have, we're hostage to those assholes. Life's a bitch and a nine or even a "10" handle on Oil is coming - hope you like the impact that will have on your heating bill this winter and everything you buy that has oil in it (that'd be anything made out of plastic, for starters!) Psst - 4th Quarter earnings estimates are deteriorating. That is all that is holding up the markets right now. If this deterioration in 4Q estimates continues much below 10% we are likely to see a 10% selloff over the next month or so! Oh, homebuilder Sentiment fell to 18 - lowest number ever. Congratulations - now we're finally starting to see some truth in that industry too. Is bad news still good news? Tell 'ya what - no earnings growth will be the end of this Bull. There's simply no way to spin that one. IBM's earnings came in at $1.68, revenues up 6.6% y/o/y. That's not particularly impressive, but is a penny over estimates (big surprise.) Big contribution from global services growth. Gross margins under a bit of pressure, 41.3% .vs. 42%; that's not in the right direction but its a small move. Looks like the "overseas good, US sucked rocks" story is alive and well. Initial response wasn't good, trading down $1.50 - we'll see how that unfolds as people dig through the release a bit more. Intel (INTC) revs came in at 10.09B, +15% y/o/y, sees 4Q basically flat (10.5-11.1), gross margin up to 52% from 47%. Earnings 31 cents, a penny over (gee, again?) The initial response was modestly positive (up 2% aftermarket, but started to bleed back a bit.) Need more color on this one obviously, but the potential "hmmmm" is the forecast for basically flat sales next quarter. That doesn't put a lot of confidence into continued sales growth eh? Yahoo (YHOO) hit 11c EPS, big beat over expected 8 cents, net down y/o/y, but revenue up 12% y/o/y (although down q/o/q), sees revenues up for 4Q to some degree. Non-GAAP better but heh, what's the real number? 1999 games again? Unknown. But - not the disaster that some people were fearing, and the stock got some help after-hours. So as I put this to bed we've got 2 of 3 big reports producing material pops and one (IBM) disappointment, as measured by the market's reaction. Oh, don't tell the ABX. I know, I know, people will buy more computers and advertising even as their home front craters. If you say so - here's what the ABX did today: ![]() That's "AA" credit there in the red, supposedly anyway. Five points in a day and now pushing the August lows. ![]() Here's the BBBs on their relentless dive towards zero. Irrational exuberance in the techs? We shall see. Looks like it for a day, although IBM is dissenting strongly, trending downward even as I write this. We shall see how it plays out overnight and into the morning! Here's your technical! Comments
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Monday, October 15. 2007Munching Monday.......
.... on SIeVes, that is!
The weekend buzz in the Wall Street Journal said it all, highlighting the final piece of what was called "Frankenstein" on CNBC this morning; Bloomberg has also picked it up. The market didn't like it one bit. What am I talking about? The idea what a bunch of banks, spearheaded by Shitibank, were going to basically "cooperate" in "backstopping" their respective conduits and SIVs. As noted by Rick Santelli this morning, that's kinda like you and I, both of us severely underwater on a short position, getting together and deciding among ourselves that "our stock really isn't selling for $50 a share, its worth $25" and then marking "to market" (ourselves!) our shorts at that price. Heh, is that even legal? Hmmmm... Guess what - the ABX doesn't like it.... .check these out: ![]() ![]() Wow, that's impressive. Anyone want something at 30 cents on the dollar? Better, anyone want to take a bet on whether the "real value" is in fact zero? Anyway, the short answer is that the market appears to finally be paying attention to what is objectively "bad news" and is calling it what it is - bad news! Today the selling started and off it went, saved only by MOC orders from 401ks towards the close. Nonetheless we had a nasty day - check it out in the Technical video. Oh, and if that's not enough, the market might be waking up to our upcoming financial nightmare - entitlement programs. Suddenly, people are getting the idea - we can't possibly pay the nearly $75 trillion (in "today's money" as "contingent liabilities") that we have promised people through Social Security and Medicare. While today was symbolic in this regard, it nonetheless is a reality - we've got a major problem coming in the not-so-distant future. AOL is losing customers (still) and cutting employees. Awwwwww.... PS: AOL always did suck. Oh, and Hank Paulson is likely to find himself "on the grill" this week in the G-7 meetings. There is widespread discontent with the out-and-out fraud perpetrated upon the markets in the form of CDOs, CLOs and other "marked and sold to dreams" instruments, along with the Dollar's malaise. Heh heh, its about damn time. So is this why Hankie thinks its a good idea to heap even more bullshit on the market in the form of their SIeVe bailout program? I'll bring the BBQ Sauce, you bring the matches. I want the buttsteak; leave the asshole out please. Oh wait - I'm gonna go hungry if I leave the asshole out, aren't I? Oh well. And finally.... the grand finale on the day (other than the Technical)..... The Ticker's Petition is ONLINE! What is the petition? An attempt to wake Congress up to the recent abuses. Insane mortgages. Hiding liabilities in banks via "SIVs" and "conduits". Insider trading. Willful ignorance of the weak dollar and real inflation. Do you want to try to solve these problems? You can. Its on me. All you have to do is sign. I'll spend the money to fax your signature to your Senators and Representative. I'll keep the database here. And if we can get 100,000 signatures, I'll print the entire shooting match and pay for a nice FedEX of the entire thing to President Bush - and maybe a few other key people - like BenDover Bernanke. Let's make this thing viral. Its on its own domain, with a single purpose. Its run by me, on my own infrastructure. Politics Fax is a system I've had for over seven years, and have used successfully in other political campaigns. While it was a bit crusty (heh, 7 years of disuse will do that!) it has been resurrected and put back into active service - a bit of spit and polish and its back to its old glory. You can make a difference. Tell your friends. Spread the word around other blogs. Post the link - not to the ticker per-se, but to the petition. In short - let's make it happen. Here's your technical! Comments
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