The cacophony of "people who have an idea" (as opposed to "they have no idea") is getting louder and louder stating loud and clear that this bailout is a BAD IDEA.
Weiss Research is the latest with a 24-page white paper:
"I. Too Little, Too Late to End the Debt Crisis. Congress should
1. Disregard data based on the list of troubled banks maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC’s list currently has 117 institutions with $78 billion in assets. However, based on a broader analysis of recent FDIC call report data, we find that institutions at risk of failure include 1,479 FDIC member banks and 158 thrifts with total assets of $3.6 trillion, or 36 times the assets of banks on the FDIC’s list.
2. Think twice before providing a broad bailout for U.S. debts given the wide diversity of mortgage holders and the great magnitude of the total debts outstanding in the United States. Just-released Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data show that, beyond mortgages, there are another $20.4 trillion in private sector consumer and corporate debts, plus $2.7 trillion in municipal securities outstanding."
Yep. Read the rest. Its sobering. We NEED that $700 billion to shore up the FDIC! We cannot afford using it to bail out the fat cat Wall Street folks, who will NOT recycle that money into the broader economy - they will simply use it to avoid THEIR failures in a dozen or so firms, while leaving more than 1,000 banks - your bank - to die on the vine.
The non-partisan CBO is also deeply concerned:
"Ironically, the intervention could even trigger additional failures of large institutions, because some institutions may be carrying troubled assets on their books at inflated values," Orszag said in his testimony. "Establishing clearer prices might reveal those institutions to be insolvent."
In other words, doing this is likely to make the problem worse.
Finally, there is a huge list of economists (over 150!) who are also opposed
"....For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come."
Is that enough "learned opinion" to convince you that this is a really, really bad idea?
Oh, and China is once again making threats:
"China, Japan, South Korea and others should meet soon to seal a deal, said Yu, a former academic member of the central bank's monetary policy committee. The talks should involve finance ministers, central bank governors and even national leaders, he said."
Riiight. The truth is a bit more sinister - he who manages to get through the door first (before the crush) manages to get (most) of his money back. Everyone else gets rammed. Expect it folks, because it is coming.
Durable goods were down more than 4%, and unemployment was up to nearly 500,000 today. The real economy is deteriorating quickly and this is not due to the "credit crunch" which just went "critical" in the last two weeks (beyond the survey period); the fact of the matter is that this plan will not and cannot work, because it fails to address the root of the issue, which once again is:
There is no way to value any financially-related firm in the United States as their balance sheets are nearly 100% opaque; until you force Level 3 assets and "off balance sheet" exposures out in the open (this does not require "mark to market", but it DOES require that you force firms to expose both the claimed assets and their valuation models) investors cannot have an informed opinion of a firm's true value, or even whether that firm is solvent.
Without caging the derivatives monster you cannot stop a disorderly unwind, thereby making it impossible to know whether you will suddenly get hit with a Cat 5 hurricane of cross-defaults.
Without taking down irresponsible leverage, which the firms have refused to do voluntarily, you cannot prevent failures that result from very small losses in these firm's portfolios.
This bill addresses NONE of these matters, but all must be addressed in order to restore credit flow in Corporate America.
Further, we need the $700 billion for the broader economy and for various programs in our nation.
As things stand right now, if you do not get on the phone today and scream - literally - at your Congressfolk, they are going to pass this despite your opposition. Calls and faxes were (as of last night) running 300:1 against! We need to literally shut down the Washington DC switchboard if we intend to stop this - and stop it we MUST.
When (not if) the recession (that is now being admitted by everyone, including Pimco's Gross) that we were told was "not going to happen" by Paulson, Bernanke and everyone else bites you HARD there will be no money and no policy capacity in our government to deal with it, as we will have spent all of our available funds to bail out a couple of dozen Wall Street fat cats.
That's the choice folks - and if you want to stop it, you need to "increase forward fire" with your phone calls and faxes TODAY in the direction of Congress and make clear to them that you will vote out ANY Representative or Senator who does not vote NO.
The script is simple:
"If you vote for this bill, or abstain, I will vote for your opponent. No other issue is going to change my mind. Either defeat this bill or lose your job."
Pick up the phone now. Its your job, your nation, and your responsibility.
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